The Panelbase research marks a reverse in the result of the 2014 indyref, with 45% of respondents backing the Union once don’t knows are removed. Commissioned by Business for Scotland, the survey result was: Yes 51%, No 42%, Undecided 7%. Another poll published just a few hours later put support for independence at 54%, though it was based on research carried out a week earlier.
Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, CEO of Business for Scotland and the grass roots independence campaign Believe in Scotland, welcomed the poll.
He said: “The reversal of the 2014 result is a huge landmark; 55% Yes will send shockwaves throughout the political world. There is no conclusion to draw from this new set of data other than the writing is very definitely on the wall for the Union.”
A poll carried out for Business For Scotland in June put support for Scottish sovereignty at 54%. It has been followed by both Panelbase and YouGov surveys showing majority backing for a Yes vote.
The latest results, however, have reported the pro-independence side’s biggest lead yet.
MacIntyre-Kemp added: “Our June poll found independence support at 54%. That poll changed the dynamic of the constitutional conversation and led to claims of panic in the Westminster cabinet, with a series of high profile Tory visits to Scotland. We also saw the effective firing of the Conservative leader in Scotland and the Westminster Government doubling down on its undemocratic threat to deny referendum after an SNP majority. However, none of that frenetic activity seems to have helped the union, if anything it has made things worse.
“This poll is important when you consider that Yes Campaign started at 27% and grew to 45% support over the period of the campaign.
“The referendum that will be demanded following May 2021 Holyrood elections, on these figures, would start with Yes to independence commanding a 10% lead. Independence is now significantly the majority decision of the people of Scotland and its momentum looks solid.”
The Panelbase poll generated 1011 responses between August 12 and August 18. It asked Scottish based voters over the age of 16 the standard question: Should Scotland be an independent nation?
SNP depute leader Keith Brown posted: "More encouraging news for Independence supporters, with Panelbase showing support at 55%. This is borne out by feedback to me from many (Zoom) meetings with Members across the country. Our diversity is our strength, and our unity of purpose will make sure we win."
Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie commented: “I’m delighted to see yet another poll show that ever more people in Scotland believe that it is time to choose independence.
"It’s no surprise that momentum towards independence continues to build in the face of utter contempt shown to Scotland by the Westminster Government. Boris Johnson’s disastrous handling of the pandemic and his sleekit attempts to undermine the democratic mandate of the Scottish Parliament have not gone unnoticed.
"The people of Scotland deserve so much better and by taking our future into our own hands we can build that better Scotland.”